Potential adaptation strategies for rainfed soybean production in the south-eastern USA under climate change based on the CSM-CROPGRO-Soybean model

Due to the potential impact of climate change and climate variability on rainfed production systems, both farmers and policy makers will have to rely more on short- and long-term yield projections. The goal of this study was to develop a procedure for calibrating the Cropping System Model (CSM)-CROPGRO-Soybean model for six cultivars, to determine the potential impact of climate change on rainfed soybean for five locations in Georgia, USA, and to provide recommendations for potential adaptation strategies for soybean production in Georgia and other south-eastern states. The Genotype Coefficient Calculator (GENCALC) software package was applied for calibration of the soybean cultivar coefficients using variety trial data. The root mean square error (RMSE) between observed and simulated grain yield ranged from 201 to 413 kg/ha for the six cultivars. Generally, the future climate scenarios showed an increase in temperature which caused a decrease in the number of days to maturity for all varieties and for all locations. This will benefit late-planted soybean production slightly, while the increase in precipitation and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration will result in a yield increase.

Website: http://www.arjonline.org/agricultural-sciences/american-research-journal-of-agriculture/